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PREVIEW: July Employment Seen +500k, Joblessness 11% from 12.3%

CANADA DATA
  • Jobs seen slowing from record +953k in June as early burst from Covid-19 re-openings fade
  • Last two job gains were much stronger than expected, and uncertainty around recovery creates risk of another large surprise either up or down. (June surprise was around +300k, May surprise was +700k)
  • Recall the lesser-followed measure of payroll employment for May showed -4.1% vs Labour Force Survey +1.8%. Still, over a few months the two measures often show the same trend
  • Jobless rate of 11% still well above the 5.6% recorded in Feb before the pandemic took hold, closer to May's record high of 13.7%
  • Canada lost 3m jobs during pandemic shutdown. The expected gain would bring back a cumulative 1.74m of those losses
  • Key number to watch in Labour Force Survey (LFS) is hours worked-- a better tracker of GDP because many people are back to work but at reduced hours
  • Wage numbers still out of whack because of major layoffs at low-paid jobs
  • Also watch for participation rate, which climbed in June to 63.8%, approaching pre-pandemic 65.5%
MNI Ottawa Bureau | +1 613-314-9647 | greg.quinn@marketnews.com
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI Ottawa Bureau | +1 613-314-9647 | greg.quinn@marketnews.com
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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