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Price Signal Summary - Bull Flag In Gilts

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower yesterday but have recovered today. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a clear downward trend cycle. A resumption of weakness would open 129.26, 1.618 projection of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing. Firm resistance is at 131.69, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be bullish.
  • Gilt futures are trading higher but remain inside the recent range. The latest pause appears to be a bull flag formation. A break of resistance at 98.29, the May 10 high, would confirm the flag and highlight a resumption of the recovery that started Apr 25, and open 98.46, 61.8% of the Mar 12 - Apr 25 bear leg. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would instead refocus attention on 95.36, the Apr 24 low and bear trigger. Initial support is at 97.23, the May 14 low.
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