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Price Signal Summary - Bunds Clear Resistance

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain vulnerable. This week’s key technical development has been the break below the key 50-day EMA. An ability to remain below this average would strengthen bearish conditions and a resumption of weakness would open 4443.55 next, 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 22 rally. Initial firm resistance is at 4620.68, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are trading in a choppy manner. A bearish risk remains in place and potential is seen for weakness towards 3949.50, the Oct 6 low. Initial resistance is at 4186.00, Dec 1 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish although for now, a bullish corrective cycle is still in play. 1.1383, Tuesday high marks initial resistance. A break would allow for a stronger recovery and open 1.1514, the Nov 5 low. The bear trigger is 1.1186/85, Nov 24 and Jul 1, 2020 low. GBPUSD trend signals remain bearish and a break of 1.3195, Tuesday’s low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.3165, 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 upleg. Watch resistance at 1.3407, the 20-day EMA. The USDJPY short-term risk remains following the Nov 26 sharp sell-off. The pair has also recently probed support at 112.73, Nov 9 low. A clear break would strengthen the bearish case opening 112.08, Sep 30 high and a recent breakout level.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is still heading south. Attention is on the base of the bull channel drawn from the Aug 9 low. The channel base intersects at $1761.3 today and is a key support. Yesterday’s rebound in WTI futures has defined $62.43 as a key short-term support. The bounce highlights potential for a recovery that would allow a recent oversold condition to unwind. The next firm resistance is at $71.22, Nov 30 high. For bears, a break of $62.43 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded to a fresh trend high yesterday confirming a resumption of the uptrend that started Nov 1. This signals scope for 173.54 next, the Aug 31 high. Gilts are unchanged and maintain a bullish tone. Attention is on the 127.00 handle. Key support is at 124.17, the Nov 24 low. Initial support is at 125.44, Nov 26 low and a gap high on the daily chart.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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