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Price Signal Summary Bunds Sell-Off Exposes Key Support

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, recent gains in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, appear to have been a correction. The contract breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.67, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a continuation lower would expose 129.37, the May 31 low, and a break of this level would resume the downtrend and open the 129.00 handle.
  • Gilt futures traded lower Friday and the contract remains below last week’s high of 97.86 (Jun 4). For now, the recent climb is considered corrective. The next important resistance to watch is 97.86 and 98.04, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. A clear break of the latter would strengthen a bull phase and signal scope for a climb towards 98.89, the May 16 high. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 95.33, May 29 low.
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