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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
OUTLOOK
- In the equity space, a short-term corrective cycle remains in play in S&P E-Minis, following the recovery from last Wednesday’s low of 3900.00. Resistance at 4073.13, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared and this suggests potential for a stronger recovery towards 4122.88 and 4175.47,the 50.0% and 61.8% retracement levels of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 bear leg. Initial support is seen at 4022.50, the Sep 9 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend direction remains down, however, a corrective cycle has unfolded and the contract is holding on to its recent gains and has traded higher today. Attention is on resistance at 3607.40, the 50-day EMA. This is an important short-term pivot level and it has been breached today. A clear break would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and open 3705.00, the Aug 26 high. Initial support is at 3504.00, the Sep 9 low.
- In FX, the EURUSD has traded higher this morning. A key short-term break has occurred - price is through resistance at 1.0149, the channel top, drawn from the Feb 10 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.0249, 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 downleg, ahead of 1.0368, the Aug 10 high and a key resistance. First support is at 1.0028, the 20-day EMA. The GBPUSD trend needle still points south and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Key support at 1.1412, the Mar 20 2020 low and the next major support, was pierced last week. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions. This would open 1.1324, 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing. Watch resistance at 1.1705, the 20-day EMA. A break would strengthen short-term bullish conditions. USDJPY trend conditions remain bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. A pullback would allow an overbought reading in the trend to unwind. Key short-term support is seen at 139.42, the 20-day EMA. The trigger for a resumption of gains is last Wednesday’s 144.99 high. A break would open 145.28, 2.618 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing.
- On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade above recent lows. The yellow metal however remains in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The focus is on $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Resistance is seen at $1730.0, the 20-day EMA. In the Oil space, WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends the recovery from last week’s low of $81.20 (Sep 8). The bounce is considered corrective and resistance is seen at $89.01, the 20-day EMA. A turn lower and break of support at $81.20, would resume the recent downtrend.
- In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and short-term gains would be considered corrective. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. The focus is on the 142.00 handle. Gilts remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August remains intact. Attention is on 103.87, 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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