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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MARKET INSIGHT
- In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain below the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 4396.73 today and represents an important intraday hurdle. Recent gains are likely part of a corrective cycle that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 4101.75, the Feb 24 low and bear trigger. Clearance of the 20-day EMA would open the 50-day EMA at 4478.44. EUROSTOXX 50 futures recovered yesterday, however the outlook remains bearish and gains are considered corrective. Weakness earlier in the week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the primary sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This paves the way for 3700.00 and 3663.50. The latter is a 1.50 projection of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing.
- In FX, EURUSD traded lower again Wednesday and a bearish theme remains clearly intact. The focus is on 1.1040, 76.4% of the Jan ‘21 - Mar ‘21 bull phase. GBPUSD has probed 1.3273, the Feb 24 low, this week. The outlook is bearish and a clear breach of 1.3273, Feb 24 low, would open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. EURGBP has resumed its downtrend. The cross has breached support at 0.8285, Feb 3 low and this has resulted in a test of a key support at 0.8282/77, the Feb ’20 and Dec’19 lows and a key bear trigger. Note that prices below 0.8300 highlight a potential break of the base of a multi-year range - a key bearish development if confirmed. The focus is on 0.8242, 50% of the 2015-2020 upleg. USDJPY key short-term support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low, remains intact. The trend outlook is bullish above this support. A move higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 116.35, this year’s high on Jan 4. Sub 114.16 levels would alter the picture.
- On the commodity front, Gold is again back inside its bull channel. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low and intersects at $1950.1. A clear break to the upside would reinforce bullish conditions and open the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. Key short-term support is unchanged at $1878.4 low, the Feb 24 low. Oil markets remain in an uptrend. Gains this week in WTI futures confirm a significant acceleration of the uptrend. The focus is on the $120.00 handle next.
- In the FI space, Bund futures traded sharply higher Tuesday, clearing the 50-day EMA. Short-term conditions remain bullish and a resumption of gains would open 172.00. Gilts have pulled back from Tuesday’s high of 126.81. Support is seen at 123.50, the Mar 1 low. A resumption of gains would open 126.90, 2.00 projection of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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