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Price Signal Summary - Sterling Remains Vulnerable

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis are holding onto the bulk of recent gains following this week's strong rally. Futures remain above the 50-day EMA, at 4568.46 today. The focus is on 4717.00 next, the Nov 26 high ahead of the all-time high of 4740.50. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish theme despite pulling back from yesterday's high. The contract has recently breached resistance at 4186.00, the Dec 1 high and both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention is on 4311.70 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 18 - 30 downleg.
  • In FX, EURUSD attention is on 1.1383, the Nov 30 high and key short-term resistance. A break would signal potential for a stronger short-term recovery. This would open 1.1460, the 50-day EMA and 1.1514, Nov 5 low. The bear trigger is unchanged at 1.1186/85, Nov 24 and Jul 1, 2020 low. GBPUSD traded lower yesterday and breached support at 1.3195, Dec 1 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens1.3351, the 20-day EMA. 1.3351 is resistance, the 20-day EMA. EURGBP rallied sharply higher yesterday to confirm a resumption of the recovery since Nov 22. An extension would open 0.8658, the Sep 29 high and a key resistance. USDJPY is unchanged. Attention remains on Monday’s price action, a bullish engulfing reversal day. If correct, it suggests the pair has found a base. The 20-day EMA at 113.70 is still being challenged. A clear break would reinforce the reversal pattern and open the November high of 115.52. Key support is 112.53, the Nov 30 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating. The yellow metal remains vulnerable and attention is on the base of the bull channel at $1763.8, drawn from the Aug 9 low. This level represents a key short-term support. Watch resistance at $1815.6, high Nov 26. WTI futures remain firm. The focus is on $74.79 next, the 50-day EMA. Initial support lies at $69.52, the Dec 7 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures fell sharply yesterday. At this point, the pullback appears to be a correction. The contract has found support ahead of the 20-day EMA. at 173.35 today. Yesterday’s high of 175.02 is the bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A break of the 20-day EMA is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback. The Gilts trend outlook remains bullish. The focus is on 128.00 next, the Aug 31 high.
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