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Prob Of 50bp Sept Rate Cut Picks Up Slightly On WSJ Timiraos Piece

FED

September rate cut prob picks up a few bp - OIS implied rate move moving to 28.5bp from 26.5bp - potentially triggered by an article by WSJ's Timiraos (titled "The Fed's Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small? -- WSJ" which notes "they are confronting questions over whether to cut by a traditional 0.25 percentage point or by a larger 0.5 point."

  • While this piece looks like a generic preview and not necessarily an "inside scoop" - it is potentially suggesting that the door's still open to a half point cut next week, and having a market impact as participants are sensitive to the potential for Timiraos to be conveying a Fed message that the debate is still on.
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