The latest opinion poll from outlet Mainichi makes difficult reading for PM Fumio Kishida and his Cabinet, showing that a significant majority of respondents want to see the governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) ousted from power at the next general election. The poll, carried out from 20-21 April, asked respondents what their desired outcome of the next general elections would be. Sixty-two percent of respondents said they want to see a change in gov't, with just 24% in favour of a continuation of the current coalition involving the LDP and the Komeito party.

• Kishida faces a significant test on 28 April, with three parliamentaryby-electionstaking place that could have a significant impact on the PM's longevity in office. All three seats were previously held by the LDP. However, in the face of declining support and unlikely odds, the party is only standing a candidate in the Shimane No.1 seat.
• Kishida faces an internal LDP leadership contest in September. One of the few paths to the LDP reconfirming Kishida would be a strong general election performance ahead of then. However, a loss in Shimane could deal a blow to the prospects of a summer election, and therefore raise the likelihood of the LDP replacing Kishida.
• It should be noted that in spite of the poor polling for Kishida and the LDP, a change in governing party remains unlikely. The main opposition liberal Constitutional Democratic Party has not benefited substantiallyfrom the LDP's unpopularity, trailing the governing party in all polling.