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Proud Pound as GBP/USD Shows Above $1.3950.

GBP
MNI (London)
  • GBP/USD stretched its recent recovery to $1.3919 in a holiday thinned session Monday as the pound took full advantage of the reflation trade pressure on the USD, and boosted by the UK vaccine roll out.
  • Fresh demand in Asia took rate on to $1.3952 where move ran into headwind resistance at and above the $1.3950 level.
  • Rate eased but was seen meeting support at $1.3926 ahead of the European open. Further support expected to emerge into $1.3900 ahead of $1.3885/65(38.2%-50% $1.3776-1.3952). ahead of $1.3850/40 then $1.3820.
  • Resistance remains at and above $1.3950, a clear above to allow for a move toward $1.3976(1.618% swing projection $1.3758-1.3567), with expected resistance into $1.3980 then $1.3998(see MNI Techs below).
  • Talk in Asia suggesting option barrier interest at $1.4000 but no confirmation for this heard so far.
  • US market return after their long weekend and markets will watch for their reaction to the further pressure on the USD.
  • US fiscal stimulus headlines and Fed speak remain key drivers of USD value. US Empire Mfg data due at 1330GMT.
  • Fed speakers today include Bowman(no known bias) 1610GMT, George(non-voter hawk)1730GMT, Kaplan(non-voter hawk) 1800GMT and Daly(dove) 2000GMT.
  • MNI Techs: GBPUSD maintains a firmer tone and hit a new cycle high Monday and again today. Continued gains confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend that has been in place since March 2020. Moving average studies are in a bull mode, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on $1.3998 next, Apr 26, 2018 high. On the downside, firm support lies at $1.3776, Feb 12 low. A break of this level is required to dent the current bullish sentiment.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com

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