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Q1 CPI Consensus Forecast Above RBNZ’s Projection

NEW ZEALAND

Q1 CPI prints on Wednesday and is forecast on Bloomberg to post a higher quarterly rise than in Q4 but the annual rate should continue to ease. Consensus expects headline CPI to rise 0.6% q/q after 0.5% in Q4 to be up 4.0% y/y down from 4.7% helped by base effects (Q1 2023 rose 1.2% q/q). Non-tradeable inflation is expected to remain elevated at 1.3% q/q though up from 1.1%, while tradeables should again fall by 0.2% q/q.

  • In February, the RBNZ projected a 0.4% q/q rise in Q1 CPI with the annual rate easing to 3.8% y/y. This is at the lower end of consensus expectations which are between 0.4% and 0.8% q/q and 3.7% and 4.2% y/y.
  • In terms of the local banks, only ANZ is at consensus, while the others are all above. ASB expects 0.7% q/q and 4.1%, while BNZ, Westpac and Kiwibank are all at 0.8% and 4.2%.
  • Consensus is expecting higher reads for both non-tradeables and tradeables inflation than the RBNZ, but especially for the latter. The RBNZ is projecting a 1.1% q/q rise compared with consensus at 1.3% and a fall of 0.8% q/q compared with -0.2% respectively.
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