Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NORWAY
The Q4 Regional Network survey did not indicate an increase in wage growth expectations in the coming quarters. This, alongside prospects for lower employment, capacity constraints and activity expectations suggest that the report is not overtly hawkish. Overall, there are wide sectoral variations, with oil services the standout - as indicated by the already released expected output figures.
- At a first glance, the report may increase expectations for a hold in rates from the Norges Bank next week at the margin. However, the November CPI data (released Dec 11) will certainly be of higher importance.
- NOK saw a brief bout of weakness following the release, but has since pared losses against the EUR.
- Overall annual wage growth estimates are unchanged from the previous survey. Retail trade has the lowest 2024 wage growth expectations at 4.2% Y/Y, while oil services have the highest at 5.0%.
- Oil services outperformance in terms of expected output is also reflected in employment prospects, while services contacts expect weaker employment growth.
- Softening household demand is a key driver for the lower activity expectations: "Despite tighter finances, households are prioritising travel and experiences but some contacts expect lower purchasing power and higher interest expenses to dampen growth ahead".
- There continues to be evidence of labour hoarding in retail trade and construction: "One of the reasons why retail trade contacts do not reduce employment further is the minimum staffing required to cover the opening hours of shops".
- Data on the labour market and wage growth is displayed below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok