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Quarterly Statement On Monetary Policy Coming Up, Forecasts Extended To End 2025

RBA

The RBA's quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) is due at 11:30 AEST (02:30 BST). This comes after Tuesday's on hold outcome. The market focus will rest any hints around policy direction above and beyond what was delivered on Tuesday. The SoMP will also present updated forecasts out to the end of 2025. Based off Tuesday's monetary policy statement, it appears that the RBA’s forecasts are broadly unchanged from May (see our full RBA Review here).

  • Tuesday's statement indicated the following: Inflation is projected to continue moderating, reaching around 3.75% by end 2024 and the 2-3% target band by late 2025.
  • The RBA still expects GDP growth to be around 1.75% “over 2024” and “a little above” 2% over 2025.
  • The end 2024 4.5% unemployment rate forecast is unchanged.
  • However, we would note the end-2023 forecast may still be revised down given recent data.
  • RBA forecasts in May can be viewed here.

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