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Quicktake on Economic Recovery

US

Barclays analysts posit a draw-down of an estimated $1.8T in household excess savings will spur higher than expected consumption, a contributing factor to the US economic recovery.
  • Forecasts from standard consumption-smoothing models may prove misleading this time around, as they would typically imply a fairly slow rebound in consumption over our forecast horizon, despite sizable wealth gains.
  • The pandemic is an unobserved cost on consumption.
  • Barclays' outlook is "is conditional on the US gaining control of the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing economic uncertainty and allowing for a gradual restoration in mobility and a normalization in consumption and production patterns. If so, excess saving will likely be drawn upon to support this spending, reducing the personal saving rate in the process.
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