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Quicktake On NFP: Nomura

US DATA

Nomura anticipates a strong rebound in Feb employment Friday with +200k jobs

and +260k increase for "private employers and a 60k decline for government payrolls, concentrated in state & local educational employment."
  • High-frequency data including the Fed's FRB-ADP employment measure, the latest Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS) and initial jobless claims in February all suggest a pickup in labor market strength.
  • Moreover, many regular monthly indicators for February improved. Given the likely increase in low-wage food service employment, we expect a 0.1% m-o-m increase in average hourly earnings, corresponding to 5.2% y-o-y.

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