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Ramsden: Support a careful increase to the pace of QT

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  • Ramsden reiterates that QT should run in the background - and Bank Rate is the primary instrument.
  • Ramsden notes that he thinks the pace of QT can be increased: "When we decided on the initial £80 billion pace of unwind last September; we had no direct evidence on how sales would affect financial markets. The MPC incorporated this uncertainty into its initial decision on pace. From my perspective, I saw this as aiming under somewhat in order to incorporate a degree of ‘learning by doing’. The MPC has learned more about the economic and market impact of QT since then, with reassuring signs so far."
  • "The pace of gilt sales from the APF into the market has generally been successfully absorbed by the market to date... Given that, it seems reasonable for sales to continue at this pace for the next twelve-month period."
  • "when making its decision for the next twelve-month period, the MPC will be conscious that as well as the £80 billion reduction in the stock of gilts this year, the reduction in the overall APF over this period included the additional successful sale of the £20 billion corporate bond portfolio... the total decline in the APF in the year from last October will amount to some £100 billion."
  • "Taken together, for me personally, these factors support a carefully considered increase in the pace of reduction in the stock of gilts in the twelve months ahead reflecting: the completion of the CBPS unwind; the reduced need for aiming off for learning; and evidence so far on marketing functioning. I emphasise careful –like the MPC I want QT to set a gradual and predictable pace for unwind and to let it operate in the background, after all. "

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