Rand Extends Multi-Day Rally, BER Business Confidence Index Eyed

Spot USD/ZAR reversed its initial gains yesterday and sold off Wednesday, with greenback sentiment largely setting the tone for price action over the past 24h. This allowed the rand to extend its current winning streak to the longest series of gains since August, with USD/ZAR losing more altitude this morning and attacking its 50-DMA at 18.8887. The pair shed 2.7% in its peak-to-trough move from the Feb 23 high and currently sits 2.6% below last month's best levels.

• When this is being type, USD/ZAR trades at 18.8806, over 900 pips lower on the session. Technically, a clean break below 18.7622, which limited losses on Feb 21, could provide a fresh boost to short-term bearish momentum. Bulls look for renewed gains past Feb 23 high of 19.3899.
• Bloomberg note that "leveraged funds have been adding long-rand contracts since the presentation of the nation's budget in late February," pointing to data from the latest CFTC report. Local GDP data released yesterday did little to spoil the mood of rand investors, with the economy growing 1.2% Y/Y in 4Q23 vs. +0.9% expected.
• Precious metals are in mild correction of their recent sharp upswing, with the relevant BBG ticker operating 0.4% lower on the day, still clinging onto the bulk of its gains from the past few days. The composite BBG Commodity Index is little changed.
• SAGB yields are a touch lower across the curve, with 10-year breakeven inflation rate sitting at 6.40%. South Africa will auction its 2027 floating-rate bonds today.
• The Bureau for Economic Research will release its quarterly Business Confidence Index at 10:00GMT/12:00SAST.