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Rand Stabilises Off Session Lows After Heavy Political Sell-Off In South African Assets

ZAR

Broad-based greenback sales have seemingly helped USD/ZAR move away from intraday highs, with the BBDXY index last ~0.8% lower on the day and South African headline flow offering little clarity on the fate of embattled President Cyril Ramaphosa.

  • The aggregate BBG Commodity Index operates ~1% above neutral levels, with the precious metals index up over 3%. Precious-metals miner stocks are benefitting from the combination of a firmer commodity complex and Rand weakness, helping keep the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index in positive territory despite the damage inflicted by domestic political turmoil on South African bank equities, which posted their largest declines since 2020.
  • South Africa's local-currency bonds have tumbled. At the time of typing, 10-year yield sits at 11.510% after printing its best levels since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the largest single-day rally since December 2015.
  • USD/ZAR implied volatilities have surged across the maturity curve. One-week and one-month tenors both reached their highest points since March 2021.
  • The market remains on the lookout for the announcement of the time for President Ramaphosa's touted address to the nation amid ongoing talks between ANC officials.

Fig. 1: South Africa 10-Year Government Bond Yield (%) vs. USD/ZAR

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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