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Rand Ticks Lower Ahead Of Key Fiscal Event

ZAR

Spot USD/ZAR operates at 18.6986, around 500 pips better off. SAGB yields are slightly higher, despite slightly lower US Tsy yields, while precious metals are on the back foot (BCOMPR Index -0.3%). Technically, a break above Oct 26 high of 19.2710 would bring Oct 6 high of 19.6399 into play. Key support is at 18.3805, the low print of Aug 24.

  • The main point of note during today's session is Finance Minister Godongwana's Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). The official is widely expected to deliver bad news, with the ruling ANC signalling a fiscal "reprioritisation" rather than the implementation of austerity measures.
  • Absa Manufacturing PMI deteriorated to 45.4 in October from the revised 46.2 (initial reading was 45.4), missing the median estimate of 47.3. The accompanying commentary noted that "the Absa PMI had a poor start to the fourth quarter," while "the biggest drag came from the seasonally adjusted business activity index".
  • South Africa released the term sheet for the postponed inaugural auction of rand-denominated sukuk bonds, setting its date for November 22.
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