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Rate Differentials Narrowing, AUD/NZD Holding Above $1.09

AUDNZD

Rate differentials, observed via 2-Year Swaps, continue to narrow. We now sit at ~-80bps having been as wide as -150bps in mid October.

  • AUD/NZD is holding above $1.09, the pair found resistance ahead of $1.0950 yesterday and ticked lower through the session.
  • Technically the 20-Day EMA ($1.0843) has crossed the 200-Day EMA ($1.0830) signalling scope for more potential upside. Bulls target a break of the high from 2 Nov ($1.0945). This opens the $1.10 handle, YTD highs ($1.1088) and high from 18 Oct 22 ($1.1207).
  • On the downside bears break below the 20-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA. This opens the $1.06 handle, the low from 22 May ($1.0560) and the 2022 low ($1.0471).

Fig 1: AUD/NZD Daily Spot vs AU NZ 2-Year Swap

Source: MNI/BBG

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