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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Since the mid-March RBA Policy Meeting, RBA-dated OIS pricing has undergone a significant reassessment.
- Initially, expectations of easing by year-end had been moderated in tandem with a reduction in anticipated Fed easing, a trend that persisted until this week's FOMC meeting.
- However, the most significant catalyst for the shift in the Australian market was the release of the Q1 CPI figures in late April, which surpassed expectations.
- After the Q1 CPI data release, the anticipated year-end cash rate level rose notably, and so did the expected terminal rate. Before Q1 CPI, the expected terminal rate hovered around the existing cash rate of 4.35%. This outlook was reinforced by the removal of the RBA's explicit tightening bias at the March Policy Meeting.
- Presently, the market is pricing approximately 3bps of easing from an anticipated terminal rate of 4.42%.
- While some market analysts anticipate the RBA to resume its tightening cycle in the coming months, former RBA staffers have told MNI that whether the RBA will need to increase rates again to pull inflation back to target without impacting its already generous timeline remains debatable. (See MNI link)
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS Expectations: Terminal Rate Versus End-24
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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