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RBA Dated OIS’ Post-RBA Firming Continues

STIR

RBA-dated OIS pricing is 7-12bps firmer for meetings beyond August relative to pre-RBA levels.

  • Going into Tuesday’s meeting, the market was pricing approximately 15bps of easing by year-end from an anticipated terminal rate of 4.33%.
  • As it currently stands, the market attaches a 23% chance of a 25bp hike in August, with an expected terminal rate of 4.38%.
  • The expected official rate at year-end is 4.32% versus 4.21% ahead of Tuesday’s meeting.
  • For context, the market was pricing no easing by year-end from an anticipated terminal rate of 4.42% in the run-up to the RBA’s May Policy meeting.


Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Pre-RBA Vs. Post-RBA



Source: Bloomberg / MNI - Market News

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