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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
RBA dated OIS pricing is 7-10bp softer for meetings May through July and -13bp for meetings beyond.
- Pricing for November and December meetings is however +8bp and +11bp respectively from levels before today’s policy initiative announcements from U.S. authorities regarding the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse. In volatile early session trade, the market had moved to price in almost a full 25bp cut from the RBA by December.
- As Figure 1 highlights, terminal rate expectations (Oct-23) have softened a cumulative 28bp to 3.85% from pre-RBA March Meeting levels.
- Equally noteworthy ahead of the all-important Employment Report for February on Thursday, pricing for the April meeting has declined to a 30% chance of a 25bp hike. Pricing was around 55% the day after the RBA Policy Meeting last week.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS Today Vs. Pre-RBA Meeting
Source: MNI-Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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