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The Aussie is gaining ahead of the RBA rate announcement (0330GMT/1430AEDT), after AUD/USD finished slightly lower on Monday as greenback gained, but did manage to recover most of the losses sustained at the start of Asia yesterday. The pair last trades at 0.7634, up 14 pips.
- Earlier in the session ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence was released, at 112.1 the print rose from 111.2 previously. The survey showed optimism increased about economic conditions in the next 12 months and the next 5 years.
- Ahead of the RBA meeting CBA expects no change in mon pol and will focus instead on the tone of the RBA. "In our view, AUD is more likely to react to messages than actions from the RBA today. We and the market expect no change in monetary policy. The focus will be on any signal around what the RBA plans do when the A$100bn bond purchase programme (QE) expires in April. We expect the RBA to announce an extension of its QE program by a further $A100bn (over six months) in March or April. Some analysts expect an announcement this week. AUD may rally modestly intraday if the RBA does not hint at an announcement at today's meeting."
- From a technical perspective AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone following last week's move lower. Recent weakness has seen the pair trade below support at 0.7659, Jan 18 low. Scope is seen for a deeper pullback as part of a corrective cycle with momentum studies unwinding a recent overbought reading. Attention is on 0.7592, the 50-day EMA and Jan 28 low, where a break would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, 0.7782 marks a firm resistance.
- As mentioned, the key focus will be on the RBA rate announcement; weekly payroll data, AiG construction index and Markit services PMI are also released.