RBA Likely On Hold, GDP Due Wednesday

The focus of the week will be Tuesday’s RBA meeting with consensus expecting rates to be held at 4.35%. There is also Q3 GDP on Wednesday.

• Today the Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge for November prints. Last month it came in at 5.1%, its second straight moderation. November ANZ job ads are also on the schedule.
• There are Q3 inventories and company profits today as well with the former expected to fall another 0.8% q/q and the latter to rise 1.2% q/q after Q2’s sharp drop.
• October home loans are also published Monday and are forecast to rise another 1.1% m/m.
• On Tuesday Q3 current account data is released including net exports as a share of GDP, which will be important for GDP expectations. October trade is out on Thursday and the surplus is expected to widen to around $7.5bn.
• Q3 GDP on Wednesday is projected to be in line with Q2 rising 0.4% q/q but this would result in the annual rate easing to 1.8% from 2.1%. The productivity/unit labour cost components will also be important given the RBA’s focus on them.
• Final November Judo Bank composite and services PMIs are due on Tuesday. The preliminary readings were in contractionary territory.