RBA Minutes, Wages & Jobs Key This Week

The attention this week in Australia is likely to be on the minutes from the August RBA meeting and Q2 Wage Price Index both out on Tuesday. Thursday’s labour market data will also be monitored closely.

• Tuesday starts with CBA household spending intentions for July. The series is nominal and so has been impacted by price increases but has been trending lower with June rising only 2.4% y/y.
• The RBA held rates at 4.1% for the second consecutive meeting in August. The reasons given were very similar to July but the minutes published on Tuesday should provide more details and whether the Board thinks they might have to hike again.
• Tuesday also sees Q2 WPI which is expected to pick up to 0.9% q/q from 0.8% with the annual rate stable at 3.7% y/y. The Q3 data not due until November will contain the 5.75% award minimum wage increase. The RBA has said that wages remain consistent with its inflation target but only if productivity improves.
• The Westpac leading index for July prints on Wednesday. It rose 0.1% m/m in June but the 6-month change continues to point to below trend growth into 2024.
• On Thursday July employment data is released and a further 15k increase in jobs is expected with the unemployment rate edging up to 3.6%. June was a low 3.5%, printing close to 3.4% to 1-decimal place. The labour market continues to be resilient.