RBA On Hold & Moderate GDP Increase Expected

The focus of the week is going to be on Tuesday’s RBA meeting and it is widely expected that it will keep rates at 4.1% given the lower-than-expected CPI print. There is also Q2 GDP on Wednesday.

• Bloomberg consensus is almost unanimous that rates will be held at 4.1% for the third consecutive RBA meeting on Tuesday. We expect the tightening bias to be retained. This will be Governor Lowe’s last meeting and he speaks on Thursday.
• Monday sees the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for August published. Last month it eased to 5.4% from 5.7%. ANZ job ads for August are also released Monday.
• Q2 inventories/corporate profits are released on Monday and the Q2 current account including the net export share of GDP on Tuesday. Both will contain information for Wednesday’s Q2 GDP print. Inventories are forecast to rise 0.4% q/q after 1.2% in Q1 and profits are likely to be flat. The current account surplus is expected to narrow to $8bn from $12.3bn and net exports to be 0.4% of GDP.
• Tuesday also sees final Judo Bank composite and services PMIs. The preliminary readings are both under 50.
• Q2 GDP is released on Wednesday and expected to rise 0.3% q/q after 0.2% in Q1.
• Finally trade data is released on Thursday with the trade balance forecast to narrow to $10bn from $11.3bn.