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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRBC notes that the "firming in inflation....>
US VIEW: RBC notes that the "firming in inflation continues unabated. Headline
PCE now sits right at the Fed's target and we expect that will be the floor over
the balance of the year. And in between now and then, our expectation is it will
push through 2.5% (with CPI easily hitting 3%). Survey based measures of
inflation are also pointing higher. The Chicago PMI out today was the latest
regional measure to say the same thing: prices paid are rising. This all
suggests the Fed's narrative on inflation is likely due for a hawkish upgrade.
From our lens the near-term direction on inflation seems all but set. Having
said that, we don't mischaracterize this broad idea. Yes, inflation will be on
the rise in the near-term but based in large part on the gasoline futures strip,
at present, it suggests PCE inflation will drift back down toward 1.5% as we
roll into 2019. All with core measures of inflation holding around 2% (and even
a touch lower than that as we get into next year) it will give the Fed an
opportunity to use their favorite phrase to explain away a deviation in
inflation from target: it is simply "transitory". Look for the Fed to insert
that wording in the coming months."
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.