MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

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MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Re-Acceleration of Inflation Expectations Further Limits CBR Room

RUSSIA
  • CBR's inflation expectations metric ticks higher in May, up to 11.7% from 11.0% previously, and back above the 11.5% number in March.
  • The release affirms expectations that the CBR will likely keep policy unchanged at the next meeting in June, having held the key rate at 16.00% since the beginning of the year.
  • On the political side, earlier this week the economy minister made a rare admission that the Russian economy is showing signs of overheating, however disagreements still clearly exist between the CBR and government forecasts. The economy ministry remains of the view that labour market constraints are not as serious as the CBR believe they are - allowing the government to retain confidence that the economy can progress and develop even with inflation well above target.
  • Nonetheless, inflation expectations re-accelerating will further restrict the room available for the CBR to ease policy later this year. Consensus has been shifting - with expectations of rate cuts as soon as mid-year being gradually rolled back.
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