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ITALY DATA: Real Retail Sales Continue To Lag Survey Signals

ITALY DATA
CEEMEAEurozoneData BulletItalyBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Italian nominal retail sales fell 0.5% M/M in October (vs a 1.3% rise in September), while real sales were also negative at -0.8% M/M (vs 1.2% prior). On a 3m/3m real basis, retail sales rose 0.4%, comfortably above the 0.1% YTD average.

  • Although real sales of both food and non-food products fell in October, 3m/3m trends remain positive.
  • Italian retail sentiment has climbed in both the ISTAT and EC surveys in recent months, though actual retail sales have not yet seen as aggressive an uptick.
  • ISTAT expects household consumption to grow 1.2% Y/Y in 2025, up from 0.6% in 2024, due to “the strengthening labour market and the increase in real wages”.
  • This is more optimistic than the current Bloomberg consensus (0.0% in 2024, 0.9% in 2025).
  • Further strengthening in real retail sales will likely be required for either of those consumption forecasts to be met.

 

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Italian nominal retail sales fell 0.5% M/M in October (vs a 1.3% rise in September), while real sales were also negative at -0.8% M/M (vs 1.2% prior). On a 3m/3m real basis, retail sales rose 0.4%, comfortably above the 0.1% YTD average.

  • Although real sales of both food and non-food products fell in October, 3m/3m trends remain positive.
  • Italian retail sentiment has climbed in both the ISTAT and EC surveys in recent months, though actual retail sales have not yet seen as aggressive an uptick.
  • ISTAT expects household consumption to grow 1.2% Y/Y in 2025, up from 0.6% in 2024, due to “the strengthening labour market and the increase in real wages”.
  • This is more optimistic than the current Bloomberg consensus (0.0% in 2024, 0.9% in 2025).
  • Further strengthening in real retail sales will likely be required for either of those consumption forecasts to be met.