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Rebound in global PMIs (whether a......>

US TSY FLOWS
US TSY FLOWS: Rebound in global PMIs (whether a flash in the pan or not)
triggered heavy risk-on flows early overnight, Tsy futures under pressure
through the NY session. Rates rebounded after very low ISM Mfg (48.1), prices
paid (46.7)
- Incoherent (or off cue) trade related headlines (China wants a deal Pres Trump
said, but may face renewed tariffs if said deal doesn't favor the US it appears)
reversed early bid in equities with shares selling off by midmorning. Yld curves
bear steepened.
- Despite the moves, trade was relatively muted on first day back from extended
Thanksgiving holiday for many. Fed in media blackout through December 12.
- Massive Jun Eurodollar 81/82/83 put flys >+125k at 3.5 adds to appr +55-60k in
early Nov. Huge position build now zeroing in on mid 2020 for potential rate
hike (or OIS adjustment) when most everyone else is positioning for "lower for
longer"
- The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 1.608%, 5-Yr is up 2.5bps at 1.6506%, 10-Yr
is up 5.2bps at 1.8276%, and 30-Yr is up 6.9bps at 2.2746%.

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