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EURO-DOLLAR: Recovery off Thursday's low of $1.1325 was capped at $1.1360, the
rate touching that high post 1600GMT fix, before it drifted off to $1.1336 into
the close. EUR-USD retained a soggy feel through Asian trade, helped in part by
the downside pressure seen on commodity currencies, with rate consolidating
recent losses between $1.1335/45. Market feel is that risk aversion is growing,
due to ongoing global growth concerns, which should favour further USD strength
(DXY holds above its 50-dma). Recent EZ data releases have disappointed, German
IP contracted by 0.4% M/M in December against exp. of a 0.8% expansion. The EU
Commission trimmed its EZ 2019 growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.9%, while also
slashing the forecasts for major EZ economies. Elsewhere, ECB's Coeure said in
an interview that the EZ slowdown "may be broader and longer lasting than
originally forecast."
- Support now seen at $1.1335 ahead of stronger interest at $1.1325/20. A break
here to expose $1.1300, with stronger support suggested between $1.1290/80.
Resistance $1.1345, stronger at that NY recovery high of $1.1360.
- EZ focus today turns to French & Italian industrial output figures. 
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 |