Refunding Outlook: Eyeing Long End

Majority of analysts see the following in today's Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement. Higher-end estimates broadly reflect analysts' expectations that the Treasury will be accounting for higher stimulus (namely Morgan Stanley which had the highest estimates for the most part).

Consensus for next wk's refunding is $108B (+$48B 3Y, +$35B 10Y,+$25B 30Y).

Current sizes in parentheses, for October (to rise steadily monthly btwn Aug/Sep/Oct, i.e. 3Y from $46B most recent to $48B in Aug, $50B in Sep, $52B in Oct. Note 10s/20s/30s sizes reflect new issues + 2 reopenings):

• 2Y ($48B): +$6B to $54B
• 3Y ($46B): +$6B to $52B
• 5Y ($49B): +$6B to $55B
• 7Y ($44B): split opinion; +$6B-$8B to $50B-$52B
• 10Y ($32B/$29B/$29B): Range of +$1B-$7B; +$3-4B consensus
• 20Y ($20B/$17B/$17B): Range of +$1B-$5B; +$2-3B consensus
• 30Y ($22B/$19B/$19B): +$2B-$3B consensus