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Regional Currencies Recover on Prospect of Peace Talks

FOREX
  • Currencies with a higher beta toward the Ukraine crisis are outperforming early Monday, looking through the continued conflict in south-eastern Europe as representatives from both Ukraine and Russia meet again on Monday in the latest round of peace talks. Focus will be on the outcome of these negotiations as well as the meeting held between the US and China this week, as the two sides discuss the Ukraine crisis directly.
  • Resultingly, NOK and SEK are the best performing currencies in G10, with regional equity markets also trading favourably. Haven currencies are on the backfoot, with USD/JPY extending the recent bull run to make a decent test on the Y118.00 handle - a level not topped since late 2016.
  • AUD and NZD are among the session's poorest performers, with AUD/USD still under pressure following the bearish shooting star candle pattern printed early last week. AUD/USD sees next support at the 0.7226 100-dma.
  • Central banks remain in focus, with meetings from the Fed, the BoE and the BoJ due over the coming days, with the first two banks seen raising interest rates.
  • A light data schedule - typical for a Monday - keeps attention on the Ukraine crisis. There is no fixed time due for the next round of Russia-Ukraine talks, but these have historically taken place in the European afternoon.
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