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SWISS: Reminder: The Swiss 'Vollgeld' vote is this Sunday. Here's our take on
the referendum we put out a week or two ago:
Switzerland's vote on the 'Vollgeld' monetary reform due June 10th may keep any
near-term CHF rallies capped. While the referendum poses only an outside risk,
it is likely markets have become more hesitant to make assumptions on political
outcomes given the surprises in the UK, US and Italy in recent years. The
macroeconomic impacts of the Vollgeld reforms (the conversion of domestic bank
deposits into liabilities with the central bank) are incredibly unclear and
dependent on the government/central bank response. They would inevitably mean
material changes to the Swiss economy, best summarised by the central bank's
President Jordan: "The initiative raises unrealistic expectations... it is an
unnecessary and dangerous experiment". Opinion polling leaves little chance of
an overhaul of the monetary system, but many traders will have learnt the hard
way not to over-trust surveys in recent years and, as a result, CHF rallies may
be short-lived.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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