Free Trial

Renewed Reliance On Cyclically Insensitive Categories

US DATA
  • As we’ve touched upon, the private payrolls data offered a weaker takeaway than total nonfarm, rising 136k (cons 160k) in June after two-month downward revisions totaling -86k.
  • The counterpart here is a resurgence in public job creation with +70k in June. After an average +13k in Apr-May, it returns to a similar pace to the historically strong +60k averaged through Jan’23-Mar’24.
  • The latest data mostly revised away what had appeared an encouraging broadening in job gains across private sectors. The 1-month diffusion index is now seen to have increased to 59.6 in June but only from a downward revised 56.4 in May (the initial 63.4 had been the highest since Jan’23).
  • Looking from a slightly different angle, the cyclically insensitive health & social assistance category continues to dominate, adding 82k jobs after 83k in May. It accounted for 61% of private job gains in June after 43% in May and a huge 91% in April.
  • Add the government to health & social assistance and the two categories contributed 74% of total nonfarm payroll growth.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.