REPEAT: MNI 5 THINGS: Canada Jobs Creation Seen Keeping Pace

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 17:07 GMT Apr 4/13:07 EST Apr 4

--5 Things To Look For In Canada March Labor Force Survey 

By Yali N'Diaye

     OTTAWA (MNI) - Statistics Canada will release the March Labor Force survey

data Friday morning. Ahead of the release, we highlight five themes for

particular attention:    

     --STEADY PACE 

     Analysts in an MNI survey expect March employment to increase by 15,000,

keeping a similar pace as the 15,400 gain recorded in February. Forecasts range

from 10,000 to 25,000. A 15,000 employment gain would put the first quarter

monthly average at -19,200, owing to January's 88,000 drop that was all

part-time driven. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 5.8%,

with a forecast range of 5.7% to 6.1%.

     --FULL-TIME VS PART-TIME

     While the economy added jobs in February, it was all concentrated in

part-time positions (+54,700), while full-time jobs, considered higher quality

and a better reflection of business confidence, were down 39,300 after rising

49,000 in January. It is also worth keeping an eye on the share of part-time

workers who were part time for involuntary reasons, which registered 21.4% in

February, down from January and February 2017.

     --EYES ON WAGES

     The steady pace of job creations would be in line with analysts'

expectations of a slowing growth momentum. Still, it would continue to reflect

the ongoing absorption of labor market slack that could translate into a pickup

in the 12-month hourly wage growth for permanent workers from 3.1% in February.

With underlying inflation continuing to pick up, the wage trend remains high on

the radar of the Bank of Canada.

     --YOUTH PARTICIPATION RATE

     The participation rate, which remained stable at 65.5% in February, will

also be worth watching. In particular, BOC Governor Stephen Poloz is still not

satisfied with the youth participation rate, which edged down 0.1 percentage

point to 63.5% in February, the lowest since September 2017.

     --GOODS VERSUS SERVICES 

     Gains in February were concentrated in the services sector, where

employment rose 25,900, while it contracted 10,400 for goods-producing

industries. In particular, 16,500 jobs were shed in the manufacturing sector in

February, the largest drop since March 2016. It is a sector worth watching at a

time U.S. protectionist policies remain a source of uncertainty for Canada's

exports, notably in the manufacturing sector. Job creation was concentrated in

the public sector in February (50,300), while the private sector added 8,400

positions.

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 869-0916; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com