REPEAT: MNI: : Italy 5-Star Expect To Be Part of Future Govt

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:53 GMT Jan 10/07:53 EST Jan 10

--Party Spokesman Says 5-Star Aim For Senior Cabinet Posts

By Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - Italy's anti-establishment 5 Star Movement is likely to play a

major role in the formation of the next government with a strong likelihood is

could hold significant cabinet positions, Market News a senior party spokesman

told Market News in exclusive comments.

     "We aim to win at least 35% of votes at the March elections, so our

contribution to the next government, and to what happens in Italy in the next

few months ahead, will be crucial," Danilo Toninelli, 5 Star spokesman in

parliament's Lower House told Market News.

     Toninelli argued that "without us, if parliament rejects a vote of

confidence in our favour and other parties are not willing to join forces, then

I'm afraid Italy is fated to head to a second election in the short run, risking

increased political instability and, by extension, market volatility".

--SECOND ELECTION?

     At least another two months would elapse before a second election takes

place, possibly in May, in order to give parties extra campaigning time to lure

swing voters.

     Such political turmoil is due to the new voting system that could block any

party from winning the necessary 40% of votes outright, thus favouring

coalitions, but prolonging the process of forming government.

     According to recent polls, 5 Star, the second-largest political party in

parliament after the Democrats, are currently enjoying a 27% to 30% share of the

vote. 

     Therefore, there is a risk that the election aftermath will see no

immediate, and clear ruling majority. This would lead a round of coalition

discussions, to see where (or if) a governing majority could be found before

President Sergio Mattarella launches official talks to instate a Cabinet.

     "As soon as the ballot boxes deliver the first result, if of course we do

get enough votes to provide the next premier, then we will move on our own and

give rise to a 5 Star-led government. But if not, we'll appeal to all political

parties to reach an agreement on a possible ruling coalition for the sake of the

country," said Toninelli.

     The 5 Star Movement's candidate for the Prime Minister's office, Luigi di

Maio, has seen his popularity rate drop in recent weeks as the Democrat's Matteo

Renzi and Forza Italia Silvio Berlusconi, both former premiers, pick up support.

The party that ends up winning the most votes in March, will provide the next

prime minister.

     Despite earlier "no compromise" tough stances, 5 Star are softening their

"one-party" position, opening up for potential dialogue with other political

groups.

     "One thing is clear; though, we will never strike alliances just for the

sake of ruling or grabbing key cabinet positions," added Toninelli. "We demand

concrete, shared programs that can better the country, guarantee stability and

tackle current economic challenges".

--POLITICAL CHAOS

     Analysts, though, are sceptical that the 5 Star Movement, founded by comic

Beppe Grillo in 2009, will succeed in recruiting potential allies after the

vote.

     "The 5-Star are well aware that they need to obtain 40% for a one-party

government, which sounds like an impossible aim as they admit themselves," said

Giovanni Orsina, director at Rome-based LUISS University.

     "Above all, they're likely going to be abandoned by everyone: no party at

the moment wants to join forces with 5 Star. Not even the populists are open to

such an option," Orsina said.

     This leaves the question of Italy's political future open, with Orisna

seeing only political chaos ahead.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com