REPEAT: POV: DOVISH HIKE WIDELY EXPECTED,.......>

FED: REPEAT: POV: DOVISH HIKE WIDELY EXPECTED, FORWARD GUIDANCE SOUGHT

- The second .25bp hike of year widely anticipated from the Fed Wed. Any changes

in the statement (after the addition of "symmetric inflation goal" at the March

21 FOMC) and/or dots (SEP) will be key in discerning forward guidance as Fed

chair Powell speaks 30 minutes after annc. NOTE: holding conf after every FOMC

has been resurrected (WSJ, Rtrs reporting) -- not new, but mkt trading as if Fed

telegraphing non-quarterly hikes possible (+50k Jul Eurodlr 97.50 puts)

- Planning ahead is hard to do. MNI's PINCH model shows chances of third hike in

Sep at 67.5%, forth in Dec up to 27.5%. Given current mkt lvls, mkt pricing in

appr 1.5 more hikes in 2019 (March 2019, with the rest of the year is appr 50%,

timing uncertain). According to the Fed, determining timing/size of target range

adjustment depends on "realized and expected economic conditions relative to its

objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation."

- This is no time for a hawkish hike. Labor mkt, inflation pressures/expctn's

and "readings on fncl and international developments" are all taken into acct.

Further yld curve flattening/inversion, geopol tensions can slow/halt hikes