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REPEAT: POV: ECON IMPROVEMENT...........>

NORGES BANK
NORGES BANK: REPEAT: POV: ECON IMPROVEMENT ENDORSES NORGES BANK'S CALENDAR
GUIDANCE
- The Norges Bank were ahead of the curve in announcing calendar-based rate
guidance in May and they're expected to stick with it on Thursday: rates "will
most likely be raised after Summer 2018". What may be of more interest to
markets are the quarterly projections, which will hint at policy plans beyond an
initial hike later this year. Hawkish risk: An aggressive boost to the Bank's
quarterly policy rate averages. In March, the Bank saw an 'average quarterly
policy rate' of 0.76% in Q4. Should this rise closer to 1%, the Bank will be
signalling, with a high degree of confidence, that a September rate hike is
forthcoming. Neutral: A slightly weaker inflation profile looks baked into
market expectations, with commentary focusing on risks from trade protectionism
and a slowing Eurozone. Dovish risk: Should the policy projections indicate that
a 2018 hike is a 'one and done' scenario, markets will likely be happy selling
NOK, bidding EUR/NOK back to the 50-dma of 9.5629.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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