REPEAT: REALITY CHECK PART 1: Oct Job Postings, Hires Healthy

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 14:48 GMT Nov 2/10:48 EST Nov 2

--Strain To Find Talent In Shrinking Pool Results In Creative Strategies

--Some Angst About Long-Term Health Of The US Economy, Eye On Tax Reform. 

--Workers Migrating For Higher Pay

By Vicki Schmelzer

     NEW YORK (MNI) - Job postings and placements ranged from still solid to

"healthy" in October, according to recruiters interviewed for Market News

International's latest REALITY CHECK on U.S. hiring trends.

     Recruiters acknowledged an increased struggle to fill positions at all

staffing levels and in all industries given an ever-shrinking talent pool. 

     Those who are working already need to be enticed to look elsewhere and

those remaining, who do not have a job, may not want one, they said. 

     "There's always going to be, at minimum, 5% of the population that just

doesn't want to work," one recruiter observed. 

     "We've hit an unemployment level where we're pushing now - where we're

pulling some of those people to get them to work, and they just don't want to -

there is no motivation there, for whatever reason," he said. 

     October job postings and new hires were "really healthy," but about the

same as in September which was already "a great month," said Preet Kuar,

Executive Recruiter and Business Development Manager at Pacific Staffing in

Sacramento, CA.

     The interview process "is getting quicker," with "more demand for our

customers to get somebody that can interview the next day," she said. 

     Clients and candidates are "not playing games with one another," as had

been the case at times in the past, with much "more transparency" and "more

direct interviews" in the current business climate, Kuar said. 

     In terms of staffing levels, last month there was increased demand for

entry-level to mid-level manager positions across all industries, she said. 

     "Clients are having a hard time promoting - either they lack succession

planning training or people aren't interested in promotion within, so they are

opening up to going outside. There are a lot of first-line or middle-manager

positions right now," Kuar said.

     For Daniel Morgan, owner of two Express Employment Professionals franchises

in the Birmingham, AL area, October was "almost out of control," with record job

postings and hires for the month.

     "Our office has just been slammed," with demand for workers in all

industries and staffing levels, he said. 

     "We normally do not grow like this in October. We hit our high in client

count usually by August and everything after that, it starts leveling off. Now,

we are hitting highs every week and it's October, and that should not be

happening based on the other years," he said.   

     In the past, if an employer lost a worker in the final months of the year,

for budget purposes, they would probably wait until January or February to hire

a replacement. 

     "But, what we are seeing right now, if that person quits, they go, 'hey -

go ahead and send us somebody else,'" Morgan said. 

     "That also shows me they don't see their demand slowing down," he said.

     At the same time, Morgan has seen signs of angst about the future.

     Employers are wondering how long the U.S. and global economic expansion

will last and fear hiring too many people now in case there is a slowdown in a

few years, he said. 

     U.S. tax reform being implemented would be seen as a "windfall of money to

these businesses and then, they would feel more comfortable spending money on

those positions," Morgan said. 

     Kurt Trost, Talent Acquisition Manager at Manpower Group, saw no sign of

hiring leveling off in the past month, adding, "Things remained high in October,

as they were in September." Trost is responsible for the Mid-Atlantic region

from Washington DC to Florida.

     "It's more employers needing more workers in more industries too, so we are

starting to see it broaden up a little bit as well," he said. 

     On the month, there were increased job postings and hires for holiday

workers as well as for the annual Open Enrollment for health care insurance

plans, Trost said.

     There were also special hires as part of ongoing remediation in the wake of

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria in late August and early September. This

resulted in "real intense labor pressure" in Texas and Florida in October, he

said.  

     "I don't think that the unemployment rate truly has registered the pressure

that we're feeling there because of all the contract and short-term labor work

that's popped up," Trost said. 

     On overall hiring trends, there is such "an insatiable demand that I think

employers are finally turning the corner to say, 'take what I can get now - like

get 'em in the door, get 'em hired, get 'em on, and so that way, I don't have to

worry about losing them,'" he said. 

     Janis Petrini, business owner and manager of the Grand Rapids Express

franchise in Michigan, said hiring "seems to be staying steady in West Michigan.

We're not seeing any signs of decline or any signs of a halt to hiring."

     The problem in October, as in prior months, was finding talent. 

     "The crisis in our area, is still not enough people for the amount of jobs

that they have," she said. 

     To address the talent crunch in the area, especially for positions in

accounting, engineering and advanced manufacturing, businesses have begun to

home in on promising sophomore college students, Petrini said.  

     "They are offering them internships already from the very beginning. Could

be a part-time job, could be an internship. Some of them are also helping to pay

for their schooling, with the commitment to stay with the firm" upon graduation,

she said. 

     "They pretty much have a guaranteed job and they've already started working

at that job throughout school," Petrini said. 

     Another innovative program designed to "solve the talent crisis" and "lift

people into the work force" is one that hand-selects and well-vets candidates,

who were formerly incarcerated in correctional facilities, to become truck

drivers.

     "We have correction facilities collaborating with a CDL-B driving school in

order to produce enough CDL-B drivers so when people exit the prison system,

they've already been trained in a skill to have a job when they leave," Petrini

said.

     The Department of Motor Vehicles describes a Class B Commercial Drivers

License (CDL) as one that is required to operate "a single vehicle with a GVWR

of 26,001 lbs. or heavier. AND/OR. Any vehicle as described above that is towing

another vehicle weighing UP TO 10,000 lbs."

     Offering perspective on the West Coast, recent natural disasters in

Northern California and Texas "are doing weird things to the work force," said

Anne Woods, franchise owner at the Express office in Covina/Santa Fe Springs,

CA,

     "Anytime there's something like that, where there's a lot of work that has

to be done and has to be done quickly for people to live half-way normally, it

pulls resources. I have seen that pull resources out of our area," she said.

     "Companies are busier because they are making something for the Houston

reconstruction. They are busier because their Houston facility isn't up and

working yet, or their resources have gone to Houston," Woods said. 

     These exiting "resources" include semi-skilled workers, electricians and

welders who are following the money. "Even $12 an hour guys can probably get $18

there right now," she said.

     "And certainly, Northern California, which is not as far away, we see

advertisements down here for higher pay up there," Woods said. 

     While some of these jobs will be temporary, others will not and will have

spillover effects for the local worker pool, she said.

     "Houston - that's going to take years. So now, you're not just talking

about a three-month job or a six-month job, you're taking about construction

work for the next two years at least. That's enough to get people to leave,"

Woods said.  

     October official U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released Friday Nov. 3

at 8:30 a.m. ET. 

     MNI's median estimate looks for a rise of 315,000 for headline non-farm

payrolls in October, with a range of up 200,000 to up 350,000. The unemployment

rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings are seen at

+0.2%.

     Kevin Kastner, Director of U.S. Economic Research at MNI, notes that "over

the last 10 years of forecasts for October payrolls, there were five

overestimates, with an average of 22,000, and five underestimates averaging

80,600."

     "The point is that an upside surprise is possible and if it happens, the

miss could be large," he said. 

     Editor's Note: Reality Check stories report on sentiment among business

people and their trade associations and are intended to complement and

anticipate economic data. If you are currently an MNI subscriber and want to be

on the Reality Check email-distribution list, contact sales@marketnews.com

--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6438; email: vicki.schmelzer@marketnews.com