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REPEAT: UPDATED: MNI Data Survey: UK Feb Labour Data

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 16:37 GMT Apr 16/12:37 EST Apr 16
By Jamie Satchithanantham
     LONDON (MNI) - Analysts' estimates that UK real earnings growth is likely
to push into positive territory holds merit after a pick up in nominal wages.
     Following a solid 2.8% 3m y/y gain in January, headline average weekly
earnings is expected to continue its upward momentum. Median estimates suggest
growth rising to the magic 3.0%-mark. Excluding bonuses, earnings growth is
expected to increase also by 0.2pp, to 2.8% 3m y/y.
----------------------------------------------------
                              Feb                Feb
                       Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly
                         Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus
                         3m % YoY           3m % YoY
Date Out                   17-Apr             17-Apr
Median                        3.0                2.8
Forecast High                 3.1                2.8
Forecast Low                  2.6                2.7
Standard Deviation            0.1                0.0
Count                          13                 13
Prior                         2.8                2.6
Barclays                      2.9                2.7
Berenberg                     N/A                2.8
Capital Economics             3.0                2.8
Credit Suisse                 N/A                2.8
Commerzbank                   2.6                N/A
Daiwa Capital Markets         2.9                2.8
Investec                      3.1                2.8
JP Morgan                     3.1                2.8
Lloyds TSB                    2.9                2.8
Morgan Stanley                N/A                2.8
Nomura                        3.0                2.8
Oxford Economics              2.9                2.8
Pantheon                      3.1                N/A
Scotia                        3.0                N/A
Societe Generale              2.8                2.7
UniCredit                     3.0                2.8
     In addition, analysts were unanimous in thinking the ILO unemployment rate
amongst would hold firm at January's 4.3%.
     The Bank of England's March meeting argued that there was little-to-no
slack left in the UK economy and with the natural rate of unemployment assumed
to be around the 4.25%-mark, analysts forecast further supports the Bank's
rhetoric.
     Finally, after a mammoth 168,000 gain in January, the employment count is
seen ticking up by a much smaller 30,000.
------------------------------------------------------
                                Feb
                                ILO                Feb
                       Unemployment  Employment Change
                               rate              3m/3m
                               3m %              '000s
Date Out                     17-Apr             17-Apr
Median                          4.3               30.0
Forecast High                   4.3               70.0
Forecast Low                    4.3               10.0
Standard Deviation              0.0               30.0
Count                            14                  4
Prior                           4.3              168.0
Barclays                        4.3                N/A
Berenberg                       4.3                N/A
Capital Economics               4.3               10.0
Credit Suisse                   4.3                N/A
Commerzbank                     4.3                N/A
Daiwa Capital Markets           4.3                N/A
Investec                        4.3                N/A
JP Morgan                       4.3                N/A
Lloyds TSB                      4.3                N/A
Morgan Stanley                  4.3                N/A
Nomura                          4.3                N/A
Pantheon                        N/A               70.0
Scotia                          4.3               50.0
Societe Generale                4.3                N/A
UniCredit                       4.3               10.0
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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