- PolicyPolicy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: - G10 MarketsG10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts - Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- CommoditiesCommodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
- CreditCredit
Real time insight of credit markets
- Data
- MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
- PolicyPolicy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: - G10 MarketsG10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts - Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- CommoditiesCommodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
- CreditCredit
Real time insight of credit markets
- Data
- MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 2
MNI BRIEF: China Likely To Grow By 5% In 2024 - Advisor
REPEAT: UPDATED: MNI Data Survey: UK Feb Labour Data
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 16:37 GMT Apr 16/12:37 EST Apr 16
By Jamie Satchithanantham
LONDON (MNI) - Analysts' estimates that UK real earnings growth is likely
to push into positive territory holds merit after a pick up in nominal wages.
Following a solid 2.8% 3m y/y gain in January, headline average weekly
earnings is expected to continue its upward momentum. Median estimates suggest
growth rising to the magic 3.0%-mark. Excluding bonuses, earnings growth is
expected to increase also by 0.2pp, to 2.8% 3m y/y.
----------------------------------------------------
Feb Feb
Avg Weekly Avg Weekly
Earnings Earnings ex-Bonus
3m % YoY 3m % YoY
Date Out 17-Apr 17-Apr
Median 3.0 2.8
Forecast High 3.1 2.8
Forecast Low 2.6 2.7
Standard Deviation 0.1 0.0
Count 13 13
Prior 2.8 2.6
Barclays 2.9 2.7
Berenberg N/A 2.8
Capital Economics 3.0 2.8
Credit Suisse N/A 2.8
Commerzbank 2.6 N/A
Daiwa Capital Markets 2.9 2.8
Investec 3.1 2.8
JP Morgan 3.1 2.8
Lloyds TSB 2.9 2.8
Morgan Stanley N/A 2.8
Nomura 3.0 2.8
Oxford Economics 2.9 2.8
Pantheon 3.1 N/A
Scotia 3.0 N/A
Societe Generale 2.8 2.7
UniCredit 3.0 2.8
In addition, analysts were unanimous in thinking the ILO unemployment rate
amongst would hold firm at January's 4.3%.
The Bank of England's March meeting argued that there was little-to-no
slack left in the UK economy and with the natural rate of unemployment assumed
to be around the 4.25%-mark, analysts forecast further supports the Bank's
rhetoric.
Finally, after a mammoth 168,000 gain in January, the employment count is
seen ticking up by a much smaller 30,000.
------------------------------------------------------
Feb
ILO Feb
Unemployment Employment Change
rate 3m/3m
3m % '000s
Date Out 17-Apr 17-Apr
Median 4.3 30.0
Forecast High 4.3 70.0
Forecast Low 4.3 10.0
Standard Deviation 0.0 30.0
Count 14 4
Prior 4.3 168.0
Barclays 4.3 N/A
Berenberg 4.3 N/A
Capital Economics 4.3 10.0
Credit Suisse 4.3 N/A
Commerzbank 4.3 N/A
Daiwa Capital Markets 4.3 N/A
Investec 4.3 N/A
JP Morgan 4.3 N/A
Lloyds TSB 4.3 N/A
Morgan Stanley 4.3 N/A
Nomura 4.3 N/A
Pantheon N/A 70.0
Scotia 4.3 50.0
Societe Generale 4.3 N/A
UniCredit 4.3 10.0
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.