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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Latest polling from the key swing state of Florida shows Republican incumbents in the races for the US Senate and governor's mansion holding slender leads over Democratic challengers. The elections outcomes could have a major impact on the US political landscape.
- Florida Senate: Rubio (R-Inc) 49%, Demings (D) 47% (Impact/Fabrizio Lee, 24-31 Aug); Rubio:(R-Inc): 47%, Demings (D): 44% (Susquehanna, 29 Aug-3 Sep)
- Florida Governor: DeSantis (R-inc) 50%. Crist (D) 47% (Impact/Fabrizio Lee, 24-31 Aug); DeSantis: 47%, Crist (D): 43% (Susquehanna, 29 Aug-3 Sep)
- Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) is seeking a third term in office, and faces Congresswoman Val Demings (D-FL). Control of the Senate looks to be trending narrowly towards the Democrats, but many races are still on a knife-edge. Losing Rubio's Florida seat would almost certainly condemn the Republicans to the minority position in the Senate.
- There is significant focus on the governor's race due incumbent Ron DeSantis' prominent position in the national political discourse. DeSantis is the most prominent incumbent Republican politician in the US at present, and is second-favourite to become the next US president behind only Donald Trump (see chart below). Losing to former Republican governor, now a Democrat, Charlie Crist would deal a sizeable blow to his image as an election winner.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next US President, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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