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Retail Sales and Input Costs At 0830ET, USDCAD Holds Trend Climb

CANADA DATA
  • Retail sales for May/Jun advance are released at 0830ET, along with June input cost inflation.
  • Recall that last month’s retail sales advance showed a heavy decline of -0.6% M/M for May, which consensus sticks with for the full release, after 0.7% M/M in April.
  • The details will again be important, after ex-auto sales were far stronger than expected in April with 1.8% (cons 0.6) after -0.8% and core sales increased 1.4% after -0.7% (ex autos & gas).
  • Volumes saw a solid 0.5% M/M increase in April but it only offset the -0.5% in March, whilst a weaker profile generally left trend growth of -0.3% annualized on a 3m/3m basis.
  • CIBC: “The advance estimate for June will also look weak, but that will include a one-off negative impact from a widespread software outage that impacted car dealership transactions for part of that month.”
  • USDCAD earlier touched new highs for the week of 1.3720 in a step closer to resistance at 1.3755 (Jul 2 high), pulling further away from the bear threat.
  • BoC-dated OIS is still mostly locked into a second cut from the BoC on Wednesday (22.5bp priced) and with more cuts from current levels by year-end.
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