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Retail sales due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • The highlight of the morning's calendar will be the release of UK retail sales for August at 7:00BST.
  • July's print saw a disappointing -2.5%M/M contraction (-2.4%M/M excluding fuel).
  • UK August retail sales could fall short of already-modest expectations, with consumers able to expand spending on services last month -- not least, in the form of staycations – with further bottlenecks reducing the already tight supply of a range of goods, according to our policy team's MNI's latest Reality Check.
  • Food sales are the biggest wildcard in forecasting the August outcome, with industry leaders noting a slowing in annual growth, as consumers return to pubs and restaurants following months of imposed home cooking.
  • The details of the print will likely be as important as the headline number. Retail sales is usually purely an indication of the state of consumer demand but with the supply bottlenecks the number needs to be taken with a bit more of a pinch of salt.
  • Having said that, if retail sales are weak due to supply-side issues that will still slow economic growth (even if it isn't demand-led).
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