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Retail Sales Pickup Tempers Rate Cut Projections

US TSYS
  • Treasuries gapped lower following better than expected Retail Sales this morning, trading sideways near lows through the balance of the session as markets digested the flood of additional data.
  • Decent volumes (TYU4 >2M, FVU4 >1.5M) as Sep'10Y futures trade 113-00 (-25) vs. 112-25.5 low, above technical support of 112-11 (20-Day EMA); curves bear flattened 2s10s -5.320 at -18.007.
  • Projected rate cuts through year end moderated vs. earlier pre-data levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -31.8bp (-35.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -62.0bp (-69.6bp), Dec'24 -93.5bp (-104.1bp).
  • July's advance retail sales report showed that the recent unexpected pickup in consumer momentum continues. June retail sales came in well above expectations at 1.0% M/M (0.4% expected, -0.2% prior rev from 0.0%).
  • Initial jobless claims surprised lower for the second consecutive week with a seasonally adjusted 227k (cons 235k) in the week to Aug 10 after a marginally upward revised 234k (initial 233k).
  • Import prices were stronger than expected in July as they increased 0.1% M/M (cons -0.1) after 0.0%, with non-oil import prices also a little stronger than expected at 0.2% M/M (cons 0.1).
  • Industrial production fell by more than expected in July, at -0.64% M/M (cons -0.3) along with a downward revised 0.3% (initial 0.6) in June and 0.8% (initial 0.9) in May.
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