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Retail Sales Surprise To Downside

GERMAN DATA

German Retail Sales for November came in lower than expected at -2.5% M/M (vs -0.5% cons and 1.3% prior, revised from 1.1%) and -2.4% Y/Y (vs -0.5% cons and -0.1% prior).

  • While the report was undoubtedly weak, retail sales are a volatile series subject to revisions, however; we will have to wait for December data (and perhaps even final revisions to that data) to draw final conclusions on Christmas retail activity.
  • Christmas sales shifted forward in recent years due to special offers, according to the German federal statistics office.
  • In isolation alone, November sales were weak at -3.1% Y/Y for non-food items. Even from a broader perspective, though, retail sales volumes have been weak for the past two years, with levels now back to where they were around five years ago. For the year 2023 up to and incl. November, the real retail sales series was-3.8% lower compared to 2021.
  • Overall, the data series is suggestive of subdued German consumer demand continuing through Q4.

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