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Reuters Poll Shows Brent Price Average Near $84/bbl in 2024

OIL

Oil prices are not likely to change much in H2 2024 with Brent averaging $83.93/bbl in 2024, according to a Reuters poll.

  • A survey of 44 economists and analysts averaged just below a consensus of $84.01/bbl from a poll last month.
  • The WTI poll average for 2024 was up marginally to $79.72/bbl from $79.56/bbl last month.
  • China demand concerns offset higher supply risks from geopolitical tensions, but some suggest prices could jump to $90/bbl or beyond due to summer consumption, the Middle East situation, and OPEC output curbs.
  • Oil demand growth is expected between 0.99mbpd and 1.4mbpd.
  • "Beyond the noise, oil prices seem stuck in a sideways trend," said Norbert Rücker at Julius Baer, with storage levels floating well within seasonal norms.
  • A small market surplus could be expected by the end of 2025 with the gradual unwinding of OPEC cuts, said William Weatherburn at Capital Economics.
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