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Richer But Little Changed After WPI Data

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +4.0 & XM +5.0) are richer but little changed after the Wage Price Index (WPI) printed less than expected in m/m terms. The WPI rose 0.8% q/q (estimate +0.9%) in Q2 versus a revised +0.9% in Q1, according to the ABS. However, in annual terms, the WPI rose 4.1% y/y (estimate +4.0%) versus +4.1% in Q1.

  • Also, NAB business conditions rose 2 points from a month earlier to 6 in July. Business confidence fell 2 points to +1.
  • Westpac consumer sentiment advanced 2.8% from the prior month to 85 points, with pessimists heavily outweighing optimists given a reading below 100. The index has held below 100 since March 2022.
  • Cash ACGBs are 4-5bps richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +9bps.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bps lower.
  • The bills strip is slightly richer, with pricing +1 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing little changed after the data, flat to slightly softer across meetings. A cumulative 20bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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