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Richer But Near Sydney Session Lows After Trade Balance Data

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +7.0) are stronger but sit at or near Sydney session lows, after August’s trade surplus surprises on the upside (A$9.64bn vs. A$8.7bn est.). Exports rose 4.0% m/m, while imports were unchanged.

  • Cash ACGBs are 5-7bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 3bps higher at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-5bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter and EFPs 1-2bps wider.
  • The bills strip has bull flattened, with pricing +1 to +7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-11bps softer across meetings beyond November, with Dec’24 leading. Terminal rate expectations have softened 4bps to 4.30%.
  • (AFR) “The year-on-year increases in rents in Domain’s quarterly review of the national housing market are a solemn reminder just how expensive it is to put a roof over your family’s head.” (See link)
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